XRP ETF Inflows Drop 96% Since Launch, Leaving $8B Forecast in Doubt
Monthly XRP ETF buying has collapsed from $600M to $27M, putting Standard Chartered's bold first-year target increasingly out of reach.
When spot XRP exchange-traded funds launched in late 2025, they arrived with considerable fanfare and an ambitious analyst forecast: Standard Chartered projected the products would attract between $4 billion and $8 billion in their first year. Four months into that window, the numbers tell a starkly different story. Inflows have fallen roughly 96% from their peak, slipping to just $27.29 million in July compared to the more than $600 million that poured in during the opening month.
The velocity of that decline matters as much as the magnitude. Early ETF launches routinely front-load their inflows as pent-up institutional and retail demand gets satisfied quickly — but a drop of this scale suggests the initial enthusiasm was not backed by durable, recurring buying pressure. XRP lacks the deep corporate treasury adoption narrative that propelled Bitcoin ETF inflows, and its regulatory history adds a layer of hesitation that many allocators have yet to shake.
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The arithmetic of catching up to Standard Chartered's $8 billion ceiling is punishing. With roughly three months left in the forecast window, XRP ETFs would need to attract approximately $2.2 billion per month — a monthly pace that would surpass every single month recorded so far by a factor of more than three. Analysts regard that scenario as highly unlikely absent a major policy catalyst, with the potential passage of the CLARITY Act cited as the kind of legislative event that could meaningfully shift institutional sentiment.
The broader lesson here is about the gap between forecast and structural demand. Optimistic projections for novel crypto ETF products tend to assume sustained inflows that mirror launch-month enthusiasm, but market history suggests initial spikes rarely hold. Whether XRP ETFs stabilize around current modest levels or find a new catalyst to reignite interest will depend heavily on the regulatory and macroeconomic environment in the months ahead.
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